I don’t know that I agree. As you say, they need large solitary ranges, and they can’t get that because of humans. To me, that’s the bulk of the equation. Sure, their requirements are significant, and resources are finite, but arguably that’s true of every species.
Certainly true, can’t argue with any of that. And evolution does inherently run into plenty of dead ends. My only counterpoint would be that if human encroachment never deprived them of habitat, and we gave them a geologic timescale, normal genetic mutation and natural selection could still eventually result in a more efficient digestive tract for their diet, allowing them to thrive.
Ultimately, that’s more of a little thought experiment than anything else, as those conditions don’t exist; and even if they did, even my grandchildren wouldn’t live to see the results. I just feel bad for the panda, as I suspect human impact will prevent them from surviving to ever get the opportunity, even if the odds are against them.